History does repeat itself, but we learn nothing from it.

On January 17, 1920, we passed the 18th Amendment to the Constitution. This was the start of Prohibition where it was illegal to manufacture, sell or transport alcohol.

Prohibition was a response to domestic violence and child abandonment. To put it clearer, it was designed to prevent (primarily) men from drinking. Alcohol was seen as evil, especially by religious groups.

But like many good intentions, it promoted the greater evil of bootleggers and gangsters, as well as bribery and the general attitude among the population that drinking was “good” (especially since it was prohibited).

Today we have a problem with drugs in the United States. Cartels control the gathering, manufacture and distribution of heroin, cocaine and synthetic drugs such as opioids and fentanyl. Cannabis has, for the most part, been decriminalized.

The latest numbers I have seen show a yearly street market value in the US of $300 billion plus (without cannabis).

I was frankly surprised by where drug consumption takes place. West Virginia is the biggest opioid consumer; Omaha is the worst city for drug use, followed by Tulsa, Wichita, Mesa (Arizona) and Oklahoma City. These are generally thought of as “fly over” states.

Cartels have dominance in Mexico. These gangs also have great influence in many Central American and South American countries. Countries like North Korea, Burma, and Afghanistan are major suppliers of these drugs.

The United States is the biggest market for illegal drugs.

So much for facts.

Some American politicians blame the drug traffic on illegal immigration; it is their boogeyman. The import of these drugs has many routes, but illegal immigration (from Mexico) is not as dominate as some scaremongers state.

It’s the consumer of these drugs who are at fault.

We live in a capitalist world. The profit motive drives much of our commerce, legal and otherwise. Drugs are profitable in great part because they are illegal or restricted. The criminal profit motive for the drug trade will be greatly reduced if profit disappears.

Since drugs will no longer be criminal, drug users will be more likely to seek emergency help.

Will more of our citizens take more drugs than now? Perhaps! But part of the appeal of drug taking is that they are illegal, similar to alcohol consumption during Prohibition.

The criminal part of drug trafficking will be reduced. No profit equals no incentive.

My guess is that fewer of our citizens will take drugs, but even if that guess is wrong, accessibility still is present in our society.

I don’t mean to be callous, but taking drugs is a choice, and as it becomes addictive, it’s still a choice. Will more people die if we decriminalize drugs? Perhaps, but we will do away with the economic incentives for the drug trade.

People will die from drug overdoses, but they are dying now. It was the same during Prohibition.

Here is my prediction: Within 15 years, the United States will decriminalize all drugs. The Federal Government will set up “stores” to sell these drugs at a reasonable cost. No advertising will be allowed (as it is with the lottery).

This will take the economic incentive away from dealing with drugs.

The fallout? Some $300 to $350 billion dollars will be removed from the economy. This amount is not taxed, nor is it disclosed.

But the banking system and bitcoin businesses will no longer have monies from illegal sources that are being “washed clean.”

Criminals will need to find other sources of business.

The DEA spends $3 billion on drug enforcement, which is the tip of the enforcement field.

We might have ways to pull people away from drugs through treatment, but the incentive to get children hooked on drugs will be reduced.